Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi MIMIC WP 5 - Creating effective measures to prevent accidents Annukka Lehikoinen Fisheries and Environmental Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Central output of the WP5: integrative risk analysis and decision support model Under the current kowledge and prevailing uncertainty, what would be the most (cost-)effective ways to decrease the risk of a major oil accident in the GoF? RISK = Probability * Harm Preventive or / and post-accidental management? Despite of the high unpredictability in some parts of the system, we should be able to assess and compare alternative actions and investments. Also answering the question: In what part of the system additional knowledge (decreasing the uncertainty) would be most helpful?

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Environmental risk assessment context: DPSIR-approach Responses Impacts Instruments to assess the harm Drivers Needs behind the pressures States Harm caused by the pressure Pressures causing harm in the system How much certain level of need creates pressure? How / to what degree the system is affected by the pressures? According to the instruments, should we react? How harmful the effects are seen? (How we valuate them?) What to do to manage the system (and what part of it)?

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Decision support models Provide a quantitative means to study alternative decisions in the presence of multiple aims Help the decision-makers to make consistent and justifiable choices in complicated and multifaceted evaluation problems Modeling aims at finding out optimal actions; when and where investments on the future state of our environment are most effective? The evaluation of the nature and extent of uncertainty in different parts of the system is essential! The uncertainty doesn’t prevent comparison of alternative actions but makes the model to give more realistic results in the light of current knowledge

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Idea of the system in WP 5 Traffic Geometric probability Accident Human error Consequences Magnitude and value of losses Controlling the causation probability Minimizing the consequences Controlling the traffic Preventive management: Post-accidental management: Minimizing the Consequences (oil recovery) € € € € € € U U U U U UUU U

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi ”State of the art”: SAFGOF – metamodel

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi

Simplified metamodel SAFGOF map user interface to evaluate the spatial environmental risk + SpillMod drifting simulations (180 scenarios * 6 years of Weather data = 1080 simulations) + OILECO database Of conservation indexes

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Oil type: heavy Traffic: 2008 Hot spot: C3 Risk in grid X = P(the grid is going to be oiled) * Conservation value index

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Further development of the approach in MIMIC New and updated sub-models Grounding model (Arsham) Level of accident tendency (human error) (CAFE)? Ecological risk modeling (Annukka / FEM group) Security? ??? New current state and future traffic scenarios (O-P) Hot spots (areas) -> ship routes (vectors?)

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Further development continues… More actions to be analysed (O-P, Päivi) Prices wherever available cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments (MIMIC, O-P) PROPABS (willingness to pay), CAFE (cost-benefit factor) More SpillMod runs if needed (OILRISK) Planning with the potential end users? Scientific use vs. real decision-making needs?

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi WP 5 - planned schedule The metamodel will be in the making all the time! Ideas and materials are wellcome Input and output variables of the sub-models! ‒ Alternative states Objective is to know the final elements and structure by the end of 2012 (MS 5) MS 6: building the model architecture All the materials (statistics, model pieces and results etc.) to be included should be ready by the end of MS 6 (April 2013) MS 7: Finalizing, testing and modifying the model MS 8: Analysing the results, writing etc.

Bio-tieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi Done so far State of the art –journal article manuscript allmost finalized (UH, CMS, Aalto) State of the art -conference paper accepted to PSAM 11 & ESREL 12 conference in Helsinki, in June 2012 Annukka will give a presentation concerning the integrative model (state of the art model + MIMIC plans)