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1
Risk analysis, risk attitudes
Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
2
Risk analysis: specific application of Bayesian decision analysis
”Risk” has many meanings, for example Probability of something bad Probability x size of the ”something bad” A factor that increases the probability and / or the size of someting bad Concepts used in everyday language get easily mixed up with concepts used in formal approaches It may be better to see ”risk analysis” as a decision analysis concentrated on loss Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
3
Steps of risk analysis Risk identification Risk assessment
Variables for the decision model: controllable variables, uncertain variables, variables of interest Risk assessment Prior information, causalities, valuation of variables of interests: impacts of potential outcomes Fit to data and assess probabilities Risk management Identify decisions that minimize expected negative impacts Value of Information and control: what to do next? Risk communication Interactive analysis tool Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
4
Risk attitudes Particular shapes of utility functions are seen to represent different attitudes towards risk Not all utility functions fall into single category of risk attitude Attitudes in the chocolate problem: ”Risk averse”: take 1 chocolate instead of coin tossing ”Risk neutral”: no preference because expected values are the same ”Risk-seeking”: take the chance with coin tossing Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
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Risk attitudes vs utility functions
”Risk averse” ”Risk seeking” ”Risk neutral” Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
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