Probability models and decision analysis : introduction Samu Mäntyniemi Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Samu Mäntyniemi/Probability models and decision analysis

Introduction Contents of the course Type and amount of work Course material Passing the course Introduction of participants Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Contents Probability models for Bayesian inference: ”science of knowing” Describe a problem mathematically Commonly used building blocks for case specific models How to criticize and compare models? Decision analysis : ”science of doing” Analytical decision making under uncertainty Value of Information: what data to collect Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Probability models: example I Linear regression Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Probability models: example II Logistic regression Released Survived Temp. 10 5 7 12 1 100 25 30 Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Decision analysis: How to make money by sports betting? Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Decision analysis: example 2 Seal hunting Conflicting interests Increasing grey seal population causes damage to fishery Too intensive hunting may cause the population to crash again How to find a balance between conservation and negative impacts to fishery profits? Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Types of work Lectures Demonstrations Experiment: Skype video Exercises Homework exercises Exam Homework project Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Amount of work 8 – 12 credits = 216 – 324h of work Lectures, demonstrations & exercises 10 x 8h =80h Homework exercises & project 136 - 244h Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Passing the course Grading 1-5 based on exercises and exam Homework project : accept/reject Homework exercises 3 sets, 4 points/set Exam 12 points, minimum of 4 points to pass the course At least 12 points from homework exercises and exam + accepted homework = course passed 8-12 credits: Small/Medium/Large homework project Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Homework project Analyse a research problem of your interest Write a report describing what you did A data analysis, modelling of expert knowledge, decision analysis or a combination of all these Return by the end of January 2011 Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Course material Wiki Bayesian Methods for Ecology Course programme Powerpoint and other files Exercises Bayesian Methods for Ecology Not necessary, but helpful Examples with BUGS code Includes some errors: I will point these out Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018

Software Hugin OpenBUGS MS Excel http://www.hugin.com/productsservices/demo/hugin-lite OpenBUGS http://www.openbugs.info/w/Downloads?action=AttachF ile&do=get&target=OpenBUGS312Esetup.exe MS Excel Biotieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi 15.9.2018