Mat-2.3134 Decision Making and Problem Solving Exercise 9: Heuristics and biases Most material adopted from: Plous, Scott (1993). The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making, McGraw-Hill

TASK 1 You will be asked thirteen questions. Answer to the questions alone, do not cooperate with others. Mark your answers to the answer sheet Do not change your answers after seeing more questions.

Question 1 Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Please check the most likely alternative: Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement

Question 2 Suppose that you have no money at all. Would you rather Receive 150 € Participate in a game, where you can get 195 € with probability of 50% and 105 € with probability of 50%.

Question 3 Imagine that a rare disease is breaking out in some community and is expected to kill 600 people. Two different programs are available to deal with the threat. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved; if Program B is adopted, there’s a 33% probability that all 600 will be saved and a 67% probability that no one will be saved. Will you choose Program A Program B

Question 4 For college students only: Compared to other students of your sex and age, you will develop a drinking problem (choose the answer which is closest to your view) 60+ percent more likely 40 percent more likely 20 percent more likely No more or less likely 20 percent less likely 40 percent less likely 60+ percent less likely

Question 5 For college students only: Compared to other students of your sex and age, you will own your own home (choose the answer which is closest to your view) 60+ percent more likely 40 percent more likely 20 percent more likely No more or less likely 20 percent less likely 40 percent less likely 60+ percent less likely

Question 6 For college students only: Compared to other students of your sex and age, you will receive a postgraduate starting salary above 3500 €/month (choose the closest answer…) 60+ percent more likely 40 percent more likely 20 percent more likely No more or less likely 20 percent less likely 40 percent less likely 60+ percent less likely

Question 7 For college students only: Compared to other students of your sex and age, you will have a heart attack before the age of 40 (choose the closest answer…) 60+ percent more likely 40 percent more likely 20 percent more likely No more or less likely 20 percent less likely 40 percent less likely 60+ percent less likely

Question 8 Imagine that you are on your way to see a Broadway play for which you have bought a ticket that cost $40. When you arrive at the theater, you discover you have lost your ticket. Would you lay out $40 for another one? Yes No

Question 9 Imagine that you have just won 150 €. Would you participate in a gamble, where you win 45 € with a probability of 50 % and lose 45 € with a probability of 50 %? Yes No

Question 10 You’re on your way to see a Broadway play and planning to buy a ticket from the theater. When you arrive at the ticket window, you realize that you have just lost $40. Would you still buy a ticket that costs $40? Yes No

Question 11 Imagine that a rare disease is breaking out in some community and is expected to kill 600 people. Two different programs are available to deal with the threat. If Program C is adopted, 400 of the 600 people will die, while Program D entails a probability of 33% that nobody will die and a 67% probability that 600 people will die. Will you choose Program C Program D

Question 12 If you were faced with the following choice, which alternative would you choose? A sure gain of $240 A 25 % chance to gain $1000, and a 75 % chance to gain nothing

Question 13 If you were faced with the following choice, which alternative would you choose? A sure loss of $740 A 75 % chance to lose $1000, and a 25 % chance to lose nothing

TASK 2 For each of the following 10 items, assess the 0,05 and 0,95 fractiles. That is, choose upper and lower estimates such that you are 90 % sure that the actual value falls between your estimates.

TASK 2 0.05 fractile (Low) 0.95 fractile (High) Martin Luther King’s age at death ________________ _______________ Length of the Nile River Number of Countries that are members of OPEC Number of Books in the Old Testament Diameter of the moon Weight of an empty Boeing 747 Year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s birth Gestation period of an Asian elephant Air distance from London to Tokyo Depth of the deepest known point in the oceans